I've seen Premum Tap since he was a pup and am aware of the physical problems hes had and the insipid ride he got last out Troll. Well aware.
The problem he has is his running style, needing the lead or a stalking position. Its going to be nearly impossible for him to work out a trip with that style that can neutralize the other speed and effectively hold off the closers.
I have yet to see you post anything or pertinence or give out any winners, something many of us have done a thousand times.
I look to create value in betting in many different ways. One of my favorite things to do is to take a longshot with a "hanging" running style or "grinding" style and key him or her underneath in the tri. Something I did and posted before the kentucky Derby regarding Steppenwolfer, who I keyed for 2nd and 3rd in the triple.
I'm no chalk lover in the sense that you will NEVER see me make a large win bet(or small one!!) on a favorite to win. And if I key one in a pik-3, pik-4, or pik-6 I am looking to catch value in the other legs of that particular pik bet.
There are many horses in the Classic who may make good keys either on top or underneath who will go off at double digit prices.
But in asessing how the race will be run, I see lava man pushing or making the lead, and bernadini stalking and making a move on the backside or the turn. This is going to hurt any horse who wants the lead or needs to run close to it, because they are going to have to neutralize the speed and tactical speed of both Lava man and Bernadini. The way that I see to attack the race is to find someone with a closing kick who can suck up into what I feel will be a solid and contested pace.