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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Look, there's no upside in telling people not to bet 30-1 shots, but this is more of a theoretical debate. And just as clearly it is easy for people to take " internet shots " with huge priced horses...not to say that YOU are doing this here....but one does see it a lot. Kind of like with Giacomo, every time he runs his confused supporters get indignent with those that suggest he was lucky in the Derby and rightfully declare him overmatched in whatever race he is in. They pick him unsuccessfully, never revisit their bad opinion, and then start the same argument again when he shows up for his next failed attempt.
I think if you take the Woodward field apart you will find it was not particularly strong and when you combine that with the track playing towards speed it is hard to say Premium Tap was too impressive. Remember who was second....and Papa Chullo basically sat on the pace, never did any running, and still wound up fourth. Only Sun King made any kind of move in the race whatsoever.
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I agree that the argument is largely theoretical. It's my opinion that most people do not know how to deal with low probability events. Granted, most horses that go off at 40-1 have an even lower chance of winning the race than their odds imply. But even if they should be 60-1, that 1.5% chance of winning has to be factored into the other horses' chances of winning. Even more so when there are several of those 1.5%-2.5% horses in the race.
Sometimes a horse will go off at 40-1 when it really ought to be around 30-1. Those horses are excellent betting opportunities.
Bettors have a hard time distinguishing between 25-1 horses and 100-1 horses. Once you use "zero chance" or "toss out" or "starting gate malfunction", you fall into that trap.
I'm not sure why you think people are more likely to pick a longshot on the Internet (and not back it up at the window). You are much more likely to look like an idiot when you pick a 40-1 shot. Even if you know what you are doing, you can expect to be "wrong" 25-30 times for every time you are "right". And backing longshot picks with your wallet should not be inhibiting in the least. If you bet sensibly, you bet roughly 1/10th as much on a 40-1 shot as you'd bet on a 4-1 shot. So how scary can that be?
--Dunbar