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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
OK...a number approaching zero which I personally believe is less than 2.5% ( though with takeout I was really saying his actual representative chances would be under 2%...wouldn't want to drop too far down in your esteem  ).
I would say he is considerably more than 10-1 to beat Bernardini. I mean even if he's 4%, do you really think Bernardini is under 40% ( yeah, I know, that would theoretically be 9-1 ). And he is probably more than 4-1 to beat Invasor and Lava Man but I can see how it's close.
The problem with a horse like Premium Tap in match-ups ( and I'm sure I don't have to explain this to you ) is that he has a running style for this race that makes even a reasonable finish difficult. He figures to have to fight it out at least reasonably early with some of the top guns and still have enough left to deal with the decent closers.
Truly, the above argument is also why I say he has " no " chance in the race. First of all, while I do think he's improved, and publically said before the Woodward he was the one longshot I would recommend in the race, he does not fit the race dynamics along with being too slow. |
Very nice response, BTWind. I'm (seriously!) way happier reading "under 2%" than "zero". When people really think "zero chance", or "only if the starting gate malfunctions", it tells me a lot about their level of betting sophistication.
I loved Premium Tap's Woodward. However, your comments will get me to take an even more critical look at Premium Tap's other PP's, and of course some race replays. I'll be surprised if I don't like him at 40-1, but it's not impossible.
Regarding Bernardini's chances, I don't know if Bernardini has less than a 40% chance to win the race, but I doubt it's much over that figure. It looks to be a big field. I'll make up a line once the entries are known. It's going to involve considerable guesswork with David Junior and George Washington.
--Dunbar
PS-One thing the Premium Tap bashers have in their favor. There's about a 95% chance they will get to say "I told you so". (even if he loses by a head, they will say he had zero chance to win.)