I am LONG-TIME buddy of Steve Byk, who knows just a little about horse racing except that I study a ton on the three Triple Crown races and bet them, with the help of Steve (Giacomo comes to mind), you folks, who actually know a LOT about horse racing, the DRF, etc.
Anyway, Wednesday morning I assigned positive values to the picks in this thread (Top 5 picks) and negative values in the "Toss" thread to try to get a feel for a consensus. This method worked great in 2007, the first year I did it, as the Derby Trailers' consensus was, in order, Street Sense, Curlin and Hard Spun, so it got the Trifecta. Not that the race didn't run to form, but still.
It worked ok in 2008 (Big Brown, no tri), not so much in 2009 (Mine That Bird) or 2010 (Super Saver) although Ice Box and Paddy ranked very highly in this exercise last year. This year's "DT consensus" order is:
Archarcharch
Dialed In (close to Arch)
Shackleford (big drop to Shackleford)
Uncle Mo (small drop to here, and very close from here to Animal Kingdom)
Soldat
Mucho Macho Man
Animal Kingdom
Nehro (as noted above, big drop from Animal Kingdom)
Midnight Interlude
Brilliant Speed (crap from here down)
Stay Thirsty
Pants on Fire
Twinspired
Santiva
Master of Hounds
Twice the Appeal
Decisive Moment
Comma to the Top
Watch me Go
Nobody had Derby Kitten, obviously.
Anyway, I'm hoping it's 2007 all over again and betting a tri box with 1-3-8-14. Had to throw 3 in because Borel busted my tri boxes the past two years. I really don't think he will finish in the money Saturday, but...
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