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Originally Posted by randallscott35
You are simply assuming there is a bias. The times the BC are at Bel and CD, I see many fewer biases. To simply layoff the first couple of races is ridiculous. Biases, even they are there, can change throughout the day. Many times you trick yourself into a bias and suddenly you've missed a haveable horse b/c you convinced yourself they couldn't win.
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I didn't say to lay off. I said I'd rather go heavier on the later races once I get a feel for the day, rather than put myself in a hole early making blind bets.
I'm not just talking about biases. There are some days where you're nailing everything and some days where you're ice cold. I like to get a feel for what kind of day it is before I drop anything heavy.
Dropping too much on the early races also makes you change the way you bet later on in the day. If you lose $100-$150 on the first four races, you tend to bet scared the rest of the time and invest too much money just trying to get even.. Whereas if you use the first few races (I'd say two) as more of a feeler, then you're more sure of what you wanna do.
I'm not saying if you have a stone cold lock, to not bet it.. But if there's nothing that screams "BET ME" in the first few races, I'd go minor and wait until I feel like I know what's going on.