Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
how? if someone hits (alone) today they will get it all. the split may even be higher today, if its not hit..... i've already hit it twice on days where other people have hit(no jackpot) . thats the money i'm using to play today. believe me i know they are giving the whole pool no matter what....but if you spend 1000 dollars chasing it and its a fairly chalky day..oh, i forgot you guys are the only ones doing that......not....you might get your money back .............maybe........you will need to get multiple 50-1 shots or higher home..... and every "gold rush" fool will be tossing in covering every logical horse and then some.....but if you want to follow the sheep over the cliff....be my guest. it all sounds great until you are sharing it with thousands of other live tickets....are you the one that said "tough sequence". yeah, thats brilliance seeing that it has not been done in weeks.....chances are many more people will hit it tommorrow .......its been that way for weeks now(no jackpot). GO FOR IT TODAY. people never get pari mutuel betting....the more people have it ,....the less you get.....that simple. friday could be a block buster life changing hit,,,,,,saturday most likely will be a treasure hunt gimmick......with thousands splitting the pot. the saying is true here...the bandwagon and one is born every minute. don't listen to me...you won't anyway....sit there and do the math. what will it require to get that jackpot tommorrow?????? pretty much a miracle. i've been chasing it to get the whole thing...i've already shared the "booby" prize twice. please tell me how its a better bet when half the world might cash on it unless some really, really freaky horses win multiple races??????? especially if one were to put a thousand in ? i hope someone hits today....real dumb bet.....lol...not that i won't try tommorrow but so will half the world.
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Because you WON'T be just getting your money back, even if it chalks out.
The takeout is 20%. So if there's $4 million bet in tomorrow, and $1.5 million in the carryover, there will be a $700k overlay on the payout- so you're playing with a ~20% bonus on the payoff, and that's just assuming the betting distribution will be "normal". Like you said, there will be tons of people playing even the most extreme combos (with Twinspires putting in $100k alone, they will have to spread extremely wide by necessity.) The chances of having a lone winning ticket tomorrow are virtually none. That is no longer the objective since the distribution is mandatory. It's taking advantage of the huge money already in the pool to hit a reasonable combo with a 20-25% bonus in the payoff. If that's not good enough for you, by all means waste your money today chasing absurd horses trying for the whole pool. Good luck.