Quote:
Originally Posted by somerfrost
Actually, Dosage parameters haven't completely failed in predicting Derby winners....since 1991, only 5 winners have exceeded dosage parameters of 4.00/1.00:
Strike the Gold...(91) 9.00/1.30 (later adjusted due to sire appointed CDR)
Real Quiet...(98) 5.29/1.27
Charismatic...(99) 5.22/1.00
Giacomo...(05) 4.33/0.94
Mine That Bird (09) 5.40/1.19
Lots of folks rushed to discredit Dosage but to date the vast majority of Derby entries fit within parameters.
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Prior to Strike The Gold in '91 every Derby winner had a DI under 4.00 going back to Clyde Van Deusen in 1929. During the 80s I was a believer in DI. Today I think it is irrelevant. There used to be quite a few Derby runners over the 4.00 limit years ago so there seemed to be something to it. Today there are fewer starters that are over the limit, and there have been 5 winners in the last 20 years being over as opposed to none in the previous 62 years. It is irrelevant now