I believe Dunbar is correct.
If a guy was a break-even player, he would make more at 5Dimes. If a break-even player bet on five different 4-1 shots, he would win 1 out of 5. If he bet this at the track, he would break even. If he bet at Pinnacle, he would have a $35 profit because of the rebates. At 5Dimes, he would have a $50 profit from the 10% bonus.
Now let's say the guy was a losing player and he only wins with 1 out of 6 when he bets on 4-1 shots. The guy betting at Pinnacle would lose a total of $58 if he bet $100 to win on six different 4-1 shots and won 1 out of 6. The guy at 5dimes would only lose a total of $50. So even a fairly big losing player would do better at 5Dimes.
The dead-average capper that loses 16% on his money will do better at 5Dimes over the long run. Even if a guy were a terrible handicapper who loses 20% on his money, I think he would still do slightly better at 5Dimes. I think you would probably have to be the worst handicapper in the world and lose well over 30% on your money for 5Dimes to not be a better bet.
|