Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
'Faves all winter on the Inner Track' have zero to do with the Wood Memorial and the all stakes P4 sequence Saturday. Yes you try and beat horses at short odds within races and in multi-race bets. Except you do so when they appear clearly questionable or vulnerable. But in the circumstance Saturday, you needed a large bankroll to be so clever as to attack the quad with the assumption Uncle Mo might lose.
I had suggested a 5x5x2x1 play for $50. The P4 to Uncle Mo was paying $200, so you were getting 4-1 in that case. Toby's Corner was the right 'other' horse, if you believed there was an 'other' horse, and the P4 paid $4,000 (80-1). The problem with trying to get clever Saturday was that the Comely and Bay Shore were tricky, and required slightly wide-cast nets. (4 possible winners in the Comely? As many as 5 plausable winners in the Bay Shore?) The Carter was, for me anyway, Apriority and Morning Line only, so that helped. But trying to get to Toby's Corner on back-up tickets was hard to accept as a prop given that you easily could have ended up with an Ava K (3-2), JJ's Lucky Train (2-1), Apriority (3-2), Uncle Mo (1-9) parlay that returned $37.50.
So in addition to spending $50 on the main ticket, which covers the vast majority of the most likely possible outcomes, your view is that public handicappers suggest to people that they spend an additional $50 to try and snare a much less likely outcome. And those handicappers are supposed to do that knowing that the likliest outcomes may not cover the cost of the tickets? And by the way, Arthur's Tale ended up every bit as 'good' in the race as the winner, so even if you backed up with Toby's Corner, you may have ended up losing had Arthur's Tale gotten to the wire. Or should it have been suggested that people spend another $50 covering Arthur's Tale?
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Thanks, but favs do come into the picture when figuring your ticket will be hit with a fav in your sequence, plus your single. I nor anyone else would have covered beyond Mo, at least I wouldn't have. I still say Mo was a bad bet as a single in the P4, even with a 50.00 ticket. 4-1 isn't a very good return on a P4.
Most public handicappers didn't say to spread at all here. And your P4 50.00 play was for a buck, so you where getting 2-1, not 4-1.