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					Originally Posted by Indian Charlie  No, I do not.
 I expect him to win the Derby.  I know he's good enough to win the Triple Crown, but I don't expect him to be in training by the time the Belmont comes around.
 
 Doesn't change what I'm saying about him being more valuable as a TC winner vs a MM winner.
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 He should win the derby 
IF none of the 100 things that could go wrong during the course of the race with a field size of 20. And yes your point is spot on.