Derby Chances
Winning:
Uncle Mo (25.00%)
The Factor (9.00%)
To Honor And Serve (7.5%)
Soldat (7%)
Premier Pegasus (7%)
Dialed In (6.25%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Mucho Macho Man (3.50%)
Machen (3.50%)
Jaycito (3%)
Elite Alex (2.75%)
Flashpoint (2.25%)
Stay Thirsty (2%)
Santiva (2%)
Comma to the Top (1.5%)
Archarcharch (1.25%)
Mr. Commons (1.25%)
Gourmet Dinner (1%)
Astrology (0.84%)
Anthony's Cross (0.50%)
Toby's Corner (0.50%)
Sway Away (0.50%)
JJ's Lucky Train (0.33%)
Bretheren (0.33%)
The Rest: (7.25%)
The 10 most likely to finish either 3rd or 4th:
#1. Dialed In (looks like countless horses who landed in the exotics but failed to win. Looks like no horses who've actually won)
#2. Premier Pegasus (loves a fast pace - can rate without the blinkers - might be just not quite good enough at 10fs...but sure seems likely to fire)
#3 Jaycito (ran faster early on than ever before last out with no blinkers - getting the blinkers and getting to relax might move him up enough to make him this years Jazil, Make Music For Me, or I'mawildandcrazyguy)
#4 Mucho Macho Man (big grinding horse with a long stride. He relaxed very well with no blinkers. Simply doesn't appear good enough to win)
#5 Stay Thirsty (Dominguez is the type of rider capable of getting that ground saving well timed trip - one that might be able to propel him into a 4th place finish)
#6 Uncle Mo (If he's caught 4 wide on the turns - chasing a fast pace - a trip Velazquez would probably be fine with - he could be a Congaree or Indian Charlie type 3rd)
#7 Santiva (is going to have the Graded earnings to get in. Is a grinding slug who might clunk up with a trip)
#8 To Honor And Serve (I think he's most likely to be 4th choice in the betting come Derby day - anyway)
#9 Elite Alex (He still needs the Graded earnings. He comes running late and will most likely have Borel - perhaps another Denis of Cork in the making)
#10 Archarcharch (will like rating behind a fast pace. Infinitely more likely to come in 3rd or 4th than The Factor)
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