Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I put this together in about 13 minutes .....
Uncle Mo (24.25%)
To Honor And Serve (8.25%)
Soldat (7.5%)
Premier Pegasus (7%)
Dialed In (6.25%)
Sway Away (4.25%)
Mucho Macho Man (3.50%)
Machen (3.50%)
The Factor (3.25)
Silver Medallion (3.25%)
Jaycito (3%)
Elite Alex (2.75%)
Archarcharch (2.50%)
Flashpoint (2.50%)
Sweet Ducky (2%)
Stay Thirsty (2%)
Santiva (2%)
Comma to the Top (1.5%)
Rouge Romance (1.25%)
Mr. Commons (1%)
Gourmet Dinner (1%)
Anthony's Cross (0.50%)
Jp's Gusto (0.50%)
Toby's Corner (0.50%)
Astrology (0.34%)
JJ's Lucky Train (0.33%)
Bretheren (0.33%)
The Rest: (5.00%)
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IMO, your 5% estimate for "The Rest" is much too low. Here is 11 years of data on the percentage of the Derby Day pool that was contributed by bets on horses that were "All Others" in Pool 2:
2010 52%
2009 28%
2008 43%
2007 19%
2006 24%
2005 37%
2004 16%
2003 42%
2002 35%
2001 26%
2000 28%
The average amount contributed by "All Others" is 32%. The smallest was 16%. Unless there is some weird bias on Derby Day that involves whether or not a horse was listed in Pool2, 32% should be a ballpark figure for the average chance of a Pool2 "All Others" horse to win the race*.
If we assume all 5 of the non-Pool2 horses in your list make it to the Derby, you give them a 11.83% combined chance to win. Adding your 5% for "The Rest" brings it up to 16.83%. That would be way below the 32% average share of the Derby Day pool that "All Others" horses have enjoyed. I think 10-15% is a better guess at the chance of your The Rest group to win the race.
--Dunbar
*There is in fact a bias that might make the 32% fig a bit too high of an estimate--the favorite/longshot bias. More longshots will generally come from the "All Others" group, and these longshots are usually overbet. But that effect is not enough, IMO, to bring the 32% ave into line with your effective 16.33% estimate for this year's Pool 2 "All Others" group.
Last year, the 3 Derby favs were listed entries from Pool 2. But the next 6 lowest odds horses were from "All Others". The longest odds horse, Discreetly Mine, was a listed entry, not an "All Others".