Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I think the main point they are missing is that the KY Derby is always going to be at least a true paced race - and sometimes an insanely fast paced race.
If you are finishing very strongly in your preps - you're probably going to have to run a whole lot faster early on in the Derby.
The same goes with workouts ... horses who enter the Derby off of crazy fast published workouts have a very good record.
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for once i totally agree with you....your not trying to use some crazy number system. the early pace is what makes the derby. this is why the arkansas derby is a key prep in many years now, the first half is usually pedal to the metal. these horses usually go a crazy half that most horses won't make at 10 furlongs...it happens just about every year. if the horse can't cruise at a high rate of speed like big brown or super saver they will never make it...thats why i don't like to honor and serve....he wins a mile going 48 on the front....then he quits in the FOY, when they were walking compared to a derby pace. soldat did good considering he ran a little early and had soemething left late. besides that the other way is to close hard late. the reality is once every 10 years a horse will get a clear lead in that race.....if that. 9 times out of 10 a number of horses that are never going to make it....dictate a ridiculous pace. many years the winner can plod home because about 17 other horses are staggering. horses that can't withstand pace pressure or have to dictate the pace.....are dead. by the end the ones walking win and the ones behind that are stumbling to the barn.