Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew
The fact that Closing Argument was 70-1 in 2005 and Balktalk was like 20-1 last year shows how dramatically Derby wagering has changed in recent years.
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Win odds in the Derby are a complete waste of time and effort, they do nothing to show you how a horse is actually valued any more.
Make Music For Me was 30-1 in the win pool this year, second longest shot in the 20-horse field, but was more like 100-1 when you saw his impact on the superfecta, even to finish fourth. Tri paid $1100+ for a buck, super paid $101,000+. All the value is in the exotic pools, which fortunately, the $2 buck chucks never pay any attention to. If he got up for third, it probably would've paid four or five times more on the super, and about 10-15 times in the trifecta.