SIERRA NEVADA
3 g High Chaparral - Rata
Breeder: EO Aitken
Owner: JC & MA Thompson
Trainer: Richard & Chris Otto
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Starts: 5
Wins: 2
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $15,325
Last start: Avondale Guineas (3rd)
Best performance of the season: Avondale Guineas (3rd)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02cKpN-DRgY
Season so far:
5th Maiden
4th Maiden
1st Maiden
1st Rating 70
3rd Avondale Guineas behind Icepin
Pedigree:
High Chaparral - that's about all that needs to be said. And his dam, Rata, won three races over distances up to 2200m. This guy is bred to run all day.
Positives:
- He's getting good at exactly the right time - each start has been better than the one before it
- Very solid pedigree
Negatives:
- He was a maiden on Jan 28 - is this too much, too quickly?
Current odds:
16-1
So can he win?
He can, but I think it's unlikely. He came from absolutely nowhere, improving an enormous amount in a very short period of time. The trainers said they are a bit worried that the Derby might be a bit too soon for him, and I share that concern. He's going to be a very good horse, but I think this will be a learning curve. Having said that, I think he'll run a strong race and go close to finishing in the money.
Predicted finish:
6th
ON THE LEVEL
3 g Align - Springtime Romance
Breeder: Highview Stud
Owner: Sir Patrick Hogan, AJ Sutherland, AC Timpson & PJ Walker
Trainer: Murray & Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Michael Coleman
Starts: 9
Wins: 2
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $46,475
Last start: Avondale Guineas (2nd)
Best performance of the season: Maiden (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKnTiClTQao
Season so far:
2nd Maiden
1st Maiden
2nd Rating 70
1st Conditions Race
6th Great Northern Guineas
4th Waikato Guineas
2nd Avondale Guineas
Pedigree:
Quite speedy - Align is well known as a sire of sprinters. But On The Level has already performed well in two distance races, so it may not be a concern.
Positives:
- Two very good races in a row against tremendous opposition
- He was doing his best work at the very end of the Avondale Guineas
- Coleman has won the Derby twice, including aboard Xcellent in 2004
- The Bakers are having a great season with the 3yos they train - Lion Tamer, We Can Say It Now...
Negatives:
- His two victories were both in quite low-quality company
- There's not much stamina in his pedigree
Current odds:
18-1
So can he win?
Yes, and quite a few people are picking him as a live longshot chance. But I think that lack of stamina in his pedigree might cause him some trouble. He's also had two gut-busting runs in very tough company. That might start to take its toll as the field turns for home in the Derby.
Predicted finish:
11th
YOUREIN
3 g Reset - It's You
Breeder: DW Flower
Owner: Sir Patrick Hogan, AJ Sutherland, AC Timpson & PJ Walker
Trainer: John Sargent
Jockey: Lisa Allpress
Starts: 8
Wins: 1
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 3
Earnings: $41,400
Last start: Avondale Guineas (13th)
Best performance of the season: Championship Stakes (3rd)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oV_O_xMVlqA
Season so far:
8th Maiden
3rd Maiden
1st 3yo (listed)
3rd Championship Stakes behind Hidden Asset
6th Karaka Mile behind Banchee
13th Avondale Guineas
Pedigree:
It's hard to say. Reset is a reasonably new sire. It's a bit of a weird pedigree, really. It's difficult to come to any sort of verdict about it. But this horse's owners know a lot about that sort of thing, so they must have liked what they saw when he went through the sale ring.
Positives:
- A listed stakes winner over 2100m at Ellerslie
- Jockey Lisa Allpress is in the best form of her life - currently 2nd on the premiership
- One of three runners in the race for trainer John Sargent
Negatives:
- It looks like he peaked in December/January - his form is going downhill
Current odds:
40-1
So can he win?
I don't think so. The Derby used to be run on Boxing Day, and I think if it was this time, he would have been one of the main chances. He was a good horse in December and January. But his performances have really gone downhill in the last couple of months. It would be a big surprise if he won.
Predicted finish:
16th
JETSET LAD
3 g Elusive City - Jetset Lass
Breeder: Stewarts' Racehorse Syndicate
Owner: CE & CJW Stewart
Trainer: John Wheeler
Jockey: Scott Galloway
Starts: 10
Wins: 3
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $43,100
Last start: Avondale Guineas (7th)
Best performance of the season: Wellington Stakes (2nd)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DR0-ddZDfrI
Season so far:
5th Rating 70
8th Rating 70
9th Wellington Guineas
3rd Rating 70
1st Rating 70
2nd 3yo
1st 3yo
2nd Wellington Stakes
7th Avondale Guineas
Pedigree:
Reasonably solid. Elusive City is a good sire, and his dam, Jetset Lass, wasn't far away when she ran 8th in the NZ Oaks in 2003.
Positives:
- A very good effort behind Jimmy Choux in the Wellington Stakes
- Distance shouldn't be a problem
Negatives:
- Form is inconsistent
- I was looking for a little more in the Avondale Guineas
- Jockey Scott Galloway has never ridden at Ellerslie before - it's a tricky track to ride
Current odds:
26-1
So can he win?
My opinion is that he can't. He's a bit hot-and-cold, and what was by far his best performance of the season came on a track that was much wetter than Ellerslie is likely to be this weekend. And even though he ran well that day, Jimmy was clearly the better horse. I don't think it'll be Jetset Lad's day on Saturday.
Predicted finish:
15th
BETWEEN THE BEATS
3 g Golan - Whistling Jazz
Breeder: CP & KR Russell
Owner: GKV Holdings Ltd, MA Head & M Isaac
Trainer: Jeff Lynds
Jockey: Noel Harris
Starts: 5
Wins: 1
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $8,600
Last start: Rating 80 (3rd)
Best performance of the season: Maiden (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igAyWOd4EKI
Season so far:
4th 3yo
4th Maiden
9th Wellington Stakes
1st Maiden
3rd Rating 80
Pedigree:
Not bad. Golan has been a successful sire, and has sired a few Derby contenders in the past. The dam, Whistling Jazz, won a race.
Positives:
- Only one really poor performance
- Trained by Jeff Lynds, who is having a great streak - Vosne Romanee, Wall Street and Booming
Negatives:
- That one bad performance was his only start against stakes-quality horses
- This is a really huge step up from Rating 80 grade
Current odds:
60-1
So can he win?
No offense to the horse or any of his connections, but I'm going to predict that this horse will finish in last place. Someone has to come 17th, and Between The Beats has the least impressive credentials in this field.
Predicted finish:
17th