Aqueduct, Friday
Race 2-
To me #1 Hot Danger is a really bad favorite. She had a perfect trip last time beating a decent at best maiden field. She is a horrible even money on the morning line. Trainer Gary Contessa is not good with this move from MSW to allowance company. He is not good with horses who won their last starts. He also had a 1-5 shot run yesterday that I thought was fortunate to win, so its not like the barn is rolling. I like the #3 Social Statement. She is 4-1 on the morning line, Im pretty sure we wont get close to that. Everything Im saying is pretty obvious and I can see this girl being 5-2 or lower and the Contessa being 8-5. Thats really the only problem I have with her. Dutrow is huge first off the claim and Ramon rides. She has been working steadily for 6 weeks now, and they are moving her way up in class first off the claim. She also appears to be the main speed. A lot of times Dutrow claims horses and moves them way up, clearly. With this horse she already has a back race that should be good enough to defeat Hot Danger. Just hoping they bet the #1 strong. Ill play it like this. Single her in a bunch of pick 3's starting in this race. Her/spread/spread. Then press maybe the main 3 I like in the next 2 races. If shes over 5-2 Ill bet her to win.
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