[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Guys, this tells you that Tagg believes that this horse is definitely derby material. He's saving him for next year, and as of right now, this is my derby horse. Well, actually, I made a bold prediction and said this was my derby horse just after he broke his maiden. It'll probably change like a million times between now and next May though.

Good move Tagg. FC skipped the Juvy also because Tagg felt that FC was Derby material. It paid off.

I disagree with this completely. Since the BC series was started in 1984, runners out of the BCJ have had MUCH more success in the TC races than those from the Remsen. Consider this information:

Runners that ran 1-2-3 in the races and then won a Classic

Juvenile
Tank's Prospect
Spend a Buck
Alysheba (2)
Easy Goer
Tabasco Cat (2)
Timber Country
Editor's Note
Point Given (2)
Afleet Alex (2)

Remsen
Pine Bluff (also ran in the BC)
Go for Gin
Thunder Gulch (2)
Empire Maker

That's 9-4 in number of horses and 13-5 in number of Classic races won. This doesn't even include horses that ran in the BC that didn't hit the board but still won a Classic the following year. U could add Danzig Connection, Bet Twice, Go and Go, Pine Bluff, Sea Hero, Lemon Drop Kid. It also doesn't include a horse like Cat Thief, who went on the win the BC Classic the next year. It also doesn't include horses like Blumin Affair and Tejano Run who also finished on the board in the Derby. And if u look and see how many horses from both races went on to win grade ones the next year, the clear advantage is even more lopsided in favor of the BC Juvenile.

The point here is that for all this talk about a silly jinx (and it's hard to dispute the fact that no horse has won both yet), the BC Juvenile is a much better place to look for a 2yo that will go on to have success as a 3yo. Running in the BC does NOT mess up a 2yo for his 3yo season. If u've got a talented horse, run him. Skipping the BC because u think that's a better way to get to the Derby, a race six months down the line, is stupid. So much can and often does happen between now and then.