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Originally Posted by Cardus
Shouldn't you factor in the takeout and make your comprehensive odds equal about 115 as opposed to 100?
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Cardus, the goal is to find bets that have "value". You have "value" when the odds you are getting are greater than the "fair" odds. You cannot have a line of "fair" odds if the probabilities of all the outcomes add to 115%.
Here's a simple example. Let's say 10 horses in a race are perfectly matched; each has the same chance to win. If you make an odds line that adds to 115, you will find that each horse's odds would be 7.70 to 1. Does that mean you should be happy to find 8.50-1 on one of the horses? No way. The fair odds on each horse is 9-1, because each of the 10 horses has a 10% chance to win. You should not be happy unless you get more than 9-1.
Using a line that adds to anything other than 100% can only lead to confusion.
--Dunbar