Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

The surface at Keeneland in the past gave a major advantage to horses who use front-running speed to win races. Several other tracks give the advantage to the same sorts of horses, so they win more races there and look like better animals.

However the new surface at Keeneland allows horses with stamina to win races, too. In the race you cite, I had picked out 5 horses as contenders - the 'duh!' horse Extreme Supreme plus Special Event, Sidcup, Drilling for Oil and Save Big Money. Sidcup made the cut because a) he had run well in a 12f race at the level over the testing surface at KD, b) he had hit the board in the majority of his recent starts, including on dirt, and c) he had shown comfort with the Keeneland surface with a 48.00 work (3/39) since his last race. You probably thought that Extreme Supreme was the 'best' horse because he broke his maiden at Saratoga and got some sort of 'big number'; but when you look at it, he sat up near the pace in a very slowly run race. They ran faster fractions at Keeneland and ES couldn't keep up when the real running started. He had done the same thing in his first try at the allowance level at Belmont. Let go of your preconceived notions and you will improve your handicapping.