Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
I don't buy it. And not necessarily because I don't think he had the potential or the stamina to be a top middle distance horse, but simply because his time is over with.
Here's a horse, going on 5, that's made all of 11 starts, despite racing at 2, 3, and 4. Physical issues are probably a very real limiting factor here. Furthermore, whether you want to call it mismanagement or not, he's been kept for the most part around one-turn during his career and it would be quite a feat for the connections (who everyone agrees are inept) to re-develop this horse into a two-turn runner.
The progeny stats for AP Indy are a huge selling point, but looking at Girolamo closely, how many other AP Indy runners have his kind of natural speed (I don't agree with your "rushed along" comment)? He's constantly in the thick of it early at shorter distances, often under strong restraint from his jockey. He's been up close in nothing but fast-paced races with fractions of :45-:46+ and 1:09+. He almost certainly would be on the lead in races of 9f-10f. He appears to have little acceleration (Jersey Town left him for dead on the turn the other day) and no real "move". He's not a typical AP Indy plodder.
Visually, he's never really finished up particularly well. He was under a heavy drive just to make up a couple of lengths on two sons of sprint sire Speightstown this past weekend. He looked good in an allowance last year, but that just brings up another question mark...his class.
He's won 4 of his last 7 dirt races. Looked at the other way, he's lost the Cigar Mile, BC Sprint, and Forego...all open races He's won a couple of conditioned allowances, a 5-horse age restricted Grade 1, and held safe one of Oaklawn's finest in Riley Tucker.
I would point to that great barometer of future success, the now defunct Futurity Stakes, as further evidence of his "cut below" status. He was outrun by Charitable Man, Flying Pegasus, and Kensei that day, and faltered alongside the decidely non-Grade 1 colt Freisan Fire in what turned out to be a preview of failure for the following 2 racing seasons.
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As to Girolamao, I disagree completely that he doesn't have acceleration. I've seen it in many of his races - maybe not this year, but it's been there. He's run several big races and he's usually finished up quite well, but this year they screwed up with him. He ran well in the Forego for a horse who'd not run in 10 months. He ran well in the Vosburgh. I think he's obviously off-form at this point, but he's still very talented.
He was 2 years old when he ran in the Futurity and he didn't run badly. Most Indy's improve with age, so they gave him time off and he came back brilliantly as a 3 year old. I don't see how his 2 year old races are an indication that he lacks sufficient class........