Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Girolamo's won 4 of his last 7 dirt races ... and he's the only A. P. Indy to ever win a Grade 1 stakes race at 6fs or less.
In terms of ability - I'm not sure there's another older male left in the country who I believe is much better than him.
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I don't buy it. And not necessarily because I don't think he
had the potential or the stamina to be a top middle distance horse, but simply because his time is over with.
Here's a horse, going on 5, that's made all of 11 starts, despite racing at 2, 3, and 4. Physical issues are probably a very real limiting factor here. Furthermore, whether you want to call it mismanagement or not, he's been kept for the most part around one-turn during his career and it would be quite a feat for the connections (who everyone agrees are inept) to re-develop this horse into a two-turn runner.
The progeny stats for AP Indy are a huge selling point, but looking at Girolamo closely, how many other AP Indy runners have his kind of natural speed (I don't agree with your "rushed along" comment)? He's constantly in the thick of it early at shorter distances, often under strong restraint from his jockey. He's been up close in nothing but fast-paced races with fractions of :45-:46+ and 1:09+. He almost certainly would be on the lead in races of 9f-10f. He appears to have little acceleration (Jersey Town left him for dead on the turn the other day) and no real "move". He's not a typical AP Indy plodder.
Visually, he's never really finished up particularly well. He was under a heavy drive just to make up a couple of lengths on two sons of sprint sire Speightstown this past weekend. He looked good in an allowance last year, but that just brings up another question mark...his class.
He's won 4 of his last 7 dirt races. Looked at the other way, he's lost the Cigar Mile, BC Sprint, and Forego...all open races He's won a couple of conditioned allowances, a 5-horse age restricted Grade 1, and held safe one of Oaklawn's finest in Riley Tucker.
I would point to that great barometer of future success, the now defunct Futurity Stakes, as further evidence of his "cut below" status. He was outrun by Charitable Man, Flying Pegasus, and Kensei that day, and faltered alongside the decidely non-Grade 1 colt Freisan Fire in what turned out to be a preview of failure for the following 2 racing seasons.