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Old 11-27-2010, 11:33 AM
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the_fat_man the_fat_man is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post

If you had used my newly adopted strategy of looking at sometimes as many as 70 or 80 races a day - and doing it 4 to 6 days a week - you'd be the Babe Ruth of tough beat stories.
Welcome to the 21st century way of handicapping. It's about looking at a lot of races (over many tracks) and picking out those with mismatches (rather than going deep into exotics, hoping for a 4:1 payout).

But I think you're looking at this all wrong. It's not about 'tough beats'. A 'tough beat' is just another way to lose. If you play a lot of races each day, then you'll get a lot of 'tough beats' (especially if you play smaller tracks where just about anything can happen). Think of it this way: the 5 home run a year hitter considers it a 'tough beat' when one of his home runs is incorrectly ruled an out. The guy who hits 50 homers a year just considers it another out.

I'd suggest that looking at up to 80 races a day should produce close to 30 plays a day. Of course, when the result is less than 5 plays, then all the beats are 'tough'.
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