Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
Wow, in less than 24 hours, you've bested The Bid's all time stupidest Derby Trail post!
Jesus, what the hell is wrong with me? I was warned in a PM not to engage you in a dialog of any sort, that we'd all be sorry.
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It's clear you have no intention of having a serious conversation or learning anything about the gaps between fillies/mares and colts on various surfaces or at various stages in their development. But perhaps some others will appreciate it.
It's more complex than this, but here's a start.
Here are the Beyer Pars for each of the relevant BC races.
Juvenile Colts - 99
Juvevile Fillies - 95
Turf Fillies - 107
Turf Colts -112
Turf Colts Mile - 111
Ladies Classic - 108
BC Classic - 117
Sprint - 113
2YO Filly Turf - 86
2YO Colt Turf - 88
Notice how the gap between the Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile Colts on dirt is only 4 points and the gap between the Ladies Classic and BC Classic is the more typical 9 point spread we usually see between fully developed colts and fillies at various classes.
That's partially because colts tend to develop a little later. That in turn makes it a tad easier for top notch early developing fillies like Rachel Alexandra, Rags to Riches etc.. to be competitive with 3YO colts in the spring and summer until the colts eventually move past them.
Does anyone actually believe that Rags to Riches would have continued developing like Curlin did after the spring/summer and won the Classic that year if she remained sound?
Curlin developing further was practically a given.
It was no shock to me that the best we saw of Rachel Alexandra came as a 3YO and that she didn't develop after that. I predicted that was the most likely scenario repeatedly when the issue came up elsewhere.
Notice that the gap between turf classes is narrower than what we see on dirt also. That's true at virtually every class on turf top to bottom.
Notice that the gap between 2YO fillies and 2YO colts on turf is almost non existent because both physical development and race development issues are at work.
Notice that there is a 4 point difference between the Classic and the Sprint even though both are open to best older males.
These kinds of PARs help express the difficultly of moving from one class to another, but they are further supported by other research I have done and the results we see in real life.
The toughest class move is to go from racing against fillies and mares to racing against older horses at classic distances on dirt like Zenyatta just tried.
It is typically easier to make the sex move in the sprint.
It is typically easier to make the sex move on turf.
It is typically easier to make the sex move among younger horses.
It is typically easiest to make the sex move on turf among younger horses.
Perhaps now you will understand the results of races and why certain class moves are tried more often than others better.