Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
I don't think there's any evidence to support that. Especially considering the fact that you're dealing with 2yo's without a lot of established form.
The three outliers would be the 5th, 6th and 11th- the 5th, an allowance won by almost 20 but in a rather modest time- resulting in a 73 raw Beyer; the 6th, a very fast maiden won by 8 for an 84 raw Beyer, and the 11th, a slow maiden won with a raw Beyer of 59.
5th: The connections of Blame sent out the winner, who was visually impressive- but the also-rans looked like they wanted a place to lie down. There's a good chance this is a negative key race.
6th: Steve Asmussen sends out a dominating 2yo winner who went off favored in his 2nd start and ran well, then crushes in his 3rd start. I've heard this story before.
11th: The winner went off at 3-1 despite being in the 12 hole and debuting at Presque Isle, 4th beaten 6 lengths. The only other horse to run went off favored, and was dreadful at KEE. Clearly, this was the weakest of the three maiden races at 6F on the day. Not surprising that it was also the slowest race on the day.
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You might be right. It's hard to say. The filly that won the 2nd race looks like a nice filly and I would have exepcted her final time to be about a second or so faster than the winner of the final race. So that is evidence that does not support my argument.
On the other hand, the 9th race that day (an allowance race that was as strong as a stakes race) went in 1:19. That $40k filly that won the 1st race ran 1:12 3/5 which is almost as fast. Yet I don't think that filly would have finished within 5 lengths if she was in the 9th race. To me that is some evidence that the track was slower later in the day.
So I don't know. There is conflicting evidence.