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Old 11-01-2010, 03:27 PM
parsixfarms parsixfarms is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,779
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav View Post
I don't think so, given the amount of horses and races, getting organized now can only help, and that isn't to say that you can't upgrade or downgrade from A to a B.

IMO, it is hard for a horse who is an 'X' to all of a sudden become playable.

What I want to know is why 'C' was left out of it
I agree that you probably can get a first cut of who are "throwouts" in a given race (and I've been working on that myself), but without knowing final post position draws and rider assignments - and the impact that they invariably have upon the pace and dynamics of a race - I don't know how one could start to determine what "contenders" are "A"s, which ones are "B"s, and which ones could become "X"s with a bad post draw. I know that I want no part of most Euros in the Mile or any of the 2YO races that draw an outside post. Similarly, it would make a big difference in the F&M Sprint or Dirt Mile if a horse in a 14-horse field drew the 1 or 2 post (with a running-style antithetical to such a post).
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