If Giralamo goes off favored I think he is the most vulnerable favorite on the card on Saturday. I think I can make a case for pretty much anyone in the Sprint other than Pashito the Che and Wise Dan. I think whomever wins that race is going to have to have a bit of a rating gear and I am going to bet a little on Hamazing Destiny who has been pretty damn good when running over a fast strip at 6F with a reasonable break. If he can get that and run his "A" race he should be right there off his 107 figure at CD at 6F.
As for least vulnerable favorite on Saturday I don't really see any way that Workforce loses as long as he shows up with his normal races, except for the dud he threw in the King George, his Epsom Derby and Arc are just way too good, and in a P4 situation he is a stand horse for me. Goldikova is a close second but not first because although Paco Boy has never beaten her, he's been closer to her than the others have been to Workforce.
As for horse who I think is the most likeliest winner on Saturday I would say it's Grand Adventure, who I think crushes if he runs back to his Nearctic or Connaught Cup. I think Frostad has found what he wants to do and that's sprint on the grass, he can run any way you ask him to and yeah he lost to Silver Timber last year but this year's Silver Timber has lost a step while this year's Grand Adventure has clearly improved big time.
On Friday, I think the most vulnerable favorite is Winter Memories if she goes off at the odds most expect. In fact I think the Juvenile Fillies turf may the be the most open race on the entire card on Friday, and think it's a scramble with Allure D'Amour, Fancy Point, Flood Plain, Kathmanblu, More Than Real, New Normal, Quiet Oasis, Tale Untold, and Together all having races that are as good as Winter Memories. I have to say I like New Normal's progression and think her last was very, very good.
I think the least vulnerable Friday favorite is Midday who's best race is probably too good for all in here, including Red Desire, and North America's best hope, which to me is Miss Keller who I will be using in both slots underneath Midday with various others. I just think if Midday shows up with her best, it's going to be awfully tough to beat her. To me Plumania is just ok, and our F&M Turf horses are just not very good to be quite frank.
I think the most likeliest winner on Friday is obviously Midday but the decent priced horse who I think has the best upset chance on Friday is Secret Gypsy who fired a big shot the last time she went 7F at Churchill Downs and is in very good form coming in, and should sit a really nice trip in here off Rightly So and can power home in the stretch and make them come get her in a wide open renewal of the Filly and Mare Sprint.
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