To me the least logical horse to beat Dini is Invasor. I don't think the field is going to be larger than 10 horses. ITHe race also seems to be completely void of speed. If Lava Man is the only speed horse, then he might get lucky and be able to control the race with some slow fractions. He might just have enough to hold off the challengers. In this scenario, the 2nd logical horse to upset Dini is Premium Tap, 3rd is Sun King.