I think it's Lava Man. If speed holds at CD, he will be extremely tough to get by. A sneaky pace scenario would really help his chances as well.
As for how he ran in the east last year. It was miserable, but LM had clearly started to regress when he left the west last year. This year he has been more consistent and is capable of running his best.
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Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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