Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Danzig188
oh no, not again. not the bc juvie curse again.
i think it's an odds thing. i wonder how many years they ran the champagne before that winner won the derby... it's just odds, that's all. odds of getting to the derby with a three year old, let alone winning it--what, 40,000-1? it'll happen, just like odds are eventually pletcher will win a classic, or that another filly will win the derby. but if it doesn't happen, it's not because of a 'jinx'. it's just racing.
it's not like the derby and preakness winner fails to win the t.c. because of a jinx. it's just the way it is.
|
Zieg you remember my two page dissertation rant on this supposed jinx back at our old board, apparently I need to do it again.
The point that Genuine has made is one that I have made time and time again. When looking for horses who have won two specific races, in two racing years, at two different distances you will always have races like the Hopeful, Champagne, BC Juvy, etc which have long spells with no subsequent Derby winner.
Its pretty obvious that the fact that there is 6 months between the Juvy and Derby, and 3/16th's of a mile sifference between them is the most dominant reason that noone has won the two. A lot more is just bad luck.
The funniest part of this jinx is the supposed notion that a horse can compete in the juvy and lose and still win the Derby, or win the Juvy and win the Classic, or lose the Juvy and still win a classic, but can't win the Juvyand win the Derby. Its as if people actually believe that there is a voodoo jinx on the two events.
In reality the BC Juvy has the been the KEY and PRIMARY prep that has produced more classic winning races than any other prep during its existence. Many don't realize this, but its true.
1984- Spend A Buck ran third in the Juvenile and returned to win the Kentucky Derby. Tanks Prospect ran 2nd and returned to take the Preakness.
1985- Danzig Connection ran 12th and returned to win the Belmont.
1986-Alysheba ran 3rd and returned to win both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Bet Twice ran 4th and returned to win the Belmont.
1988- Easy Goer ran 2nd and returned to win the Belmont.
1989- Go and Go ran 8th and returtned to win the Belmont.
1991- Pine Bluff ran 7th and returned to win the Preakness.
1992- Sea Hero ran 7th and returned to win the Kentucky Derby.
1993- Tabasco Cat ran 3rd and returned to win both the Preakness and Belmont.
1994- Timber Country won and returned to win the Preakness.
1995- Editors Note ran 3rd and returned to win the Belmont.
1998- Lemon Drop Kid ran 5th and returned to win the Belmont.
2000- Point Given ran 2nd and returned to win both the Preakness and Belmont.
2004- Afleet Alex ran 2nd and returned to win the Preakness and Belmont.
Ok so lets sum it up. Horses who competed in the Juvy have returned to win 3 Kentucky Derbies, 6 Preaknesses, and 9 Belmonts. Thats 3/22 in the Derby, 6/22 in the Preakness, and 9/22 in the Belmont.
Overall horses who competed in the BC Juvy have won 18/66 Tri crown races conducted since its inception or 27%. Imgaine that 27% of the classic races have been won by Juvy entrants.
If you look at just about any grade one two year old race run in this country, I doubt that strike rate is going to be as high.
The notion that you can run in it and win and still win other classics, run it and lose and still win the Derby, or run it and lose and win other classics, well thats some jinx.
When the right horse comes along who is bred and trained for both to win them, it will happen.