I completely agree with your take on Warrior's Reward, Nick. Personally, though, I don't think he'd have any shot whatsoever in the Mile. He's just not a very good horse. It feels like he's rested on the laurels of his dream-trip Borel and mud-aided Churchill allowance win for his entire career. I know that he has won a GI since then, but it was a weak renewal of the event. With all that said, the sprint division is so incredibly weak now that he's got a better shot to hit the board there.
Fatal Bullet was an excellent single last year in this race, and ended up being a higher price than he should have been (still favored I think) because dirt horses took money. Don't have the PPs on my blackberry, but I'd guess that Hollywood Hit will probably be similarly single-worthy here.
I love betting Keeneland even though nothing that happens on that surface has any relevance the rest of the year. You can eliminate 60% of the field in a glance, and a lot of those horses are chalks. Take your PPs for a Keeneland card, cross out every horse who hasn't run on poly or turf, and then see how you do.
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