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Originally Posted by SentToStud
I have a question for you...
Did/are/will you play serious money on Keeneland Polytrack races where none of the horses have any form over the surface?
I suppose it's fine to take whatever you can afford to bet and gamble on Keeneland opening week, but to me it's really pure gambling since it's impossible IMO to handicap a race where all or nearly all of the contestants have run on the type of surface Keeneland now has.
There's nothing wrong I guess with purely gambling on Polytrack races this early in the meet but I personally wouldn't confuse doing so with solid handicapping and serious wagering.
good luck.
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I've been capping it as if it is a surface that plays to dirt and turf horses and that has been working quite well. I thought Great Hunter was the best horse in the race so I played him. I thought Asi Siempre was the best horse in the race so I played her. Didn't matter that one was a dirt horse and one a turf horse because it seems to play equally to horses from both surfaces. I actually like it, I got killed at Saratoga this year playing all the NY breds and claimers going to the turf for their first time and having to guess based on their pedigree whether or not they will move up. With polytrack you can assume dirt and turf horses will take to it. The real nightmare, in my opinion, is figuring out what horses that have only run on poly like the dirt and which like the turf.