A horse who's last behind a slow pace on synthetic is in much better shape than one who's last behind a slow pace on dirt. And a loose leader is far more dangerous on dirt than on synthetic. Synthetic has many of the same pace-neutralizing attributes that turf does. I'm not really sure how you can dispute that.
Most 'poly' horses who do well on dirt are types with tactical speed which is rendered useless on the 'level playing field' of synthetic. Hardly ever to we see deep closers run better on dirt than on synthetic.
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