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Old 08-11-2010, 09:01 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
Accidents happen but the rail and Cohen are hardily a good sign..More Impotantly it is going to take a at least a 85 BSF to win this race and hoping that a colt riden by the B rider breaking from the rail is going to overcome a second time starter drawn well is really hard to swallow. The Nicks is second most likely he always has them ready to fire and Officer is a solid win early sprint stallion.. The Jess/ASS can be good but why would you try and beat the 11? He really looks like a easy winner
I doubt it was an accident that the horse with Cohen won. Pletcher has a lot of confidence in Cohen, as he should. If a jock was winning for you at a 37% clip from 113 mounts with a ROI of $2.51, I don't think you'd be afraid to put him on a good horse.

If a trainer has 2 first-time starters in a maiden race and one is being ridden by his go-to jock and the other is being a ridden by a no-name jock that is 0 for 20 for that trainer, I would usually assume that the horse with the go-to jock is the live one. But if both jockeys have a really high win percentage for the trainer, I would not put nearly as much weight on which horse the #1 guy is on.

And if one of the horses has already run once and has run pretty well (as is the case for the upcoming race on Saturday), then I wouldn't put any weight on which jockey is riding which horse, because the same jock will almost for sure be riding that horse again even if the other horse is better.
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