If you watch its last race, the 5 broke slow, then circled the field while the winner had an inside trip. The 5 also didn't change leads, and just missed the bob. They both ran down a loose horse.
I like the 4 for 3rd here. I think the 2 has a chance to wire.
But the only way to get any value is to play the 2 over the 5 in an exacta or to try to one number the tri.
I'm playing a 5-2-4 tri
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