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Originally Posted by The Bid
Guys, Magnum simply isnt that good of a horse
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Well,he is a good enough horse to come a close 2nd to Lava in the biggest race of the Winter/Spring Meet.He was stuck behind horses(including Lava.)When Nakatani went to the gas(had been coasting close to a slow pace,)Court couldn't go with him until he could get Magnum out from behind horses.Should have even been a closer finish.The question is whether Magnum is the same horse as he was last Spring.Pedroza will take the horse further back than Court,and hope for a better pace than in the S A HDCP.My guess is that B Derek smokes from the 7 hole,and gets clear from Preachin',and Romeo.I doubt Arroyo wants a lead,and you would think Court would now figure out that if he wants to get Preachin' to win,than he better rate just off the pace(like he has done in his last 3 wins.)If they try to go with Derek,then they can't win.Solis might as well let Derek try to get separation,because Lava has proven time and again that he likes to lay close to a slow pace,and explode away from horses.With 115 pounds,just try to pull off what he did in the San Rafael.Go about 1:10,and try to open up on the turn.If they can catch you,then so be it,but I don't think Derek has the acceleration to try to sprint for home from a slow pace (side by side with Lava.)If they had same weight,or even weight for age,I wouldn't think any of them have very much chance to upset Lava,but with an 11 pound,nd 9 pound advantage,I think it makes them closer to an upset.No doubt that B Derek has struggled away from SoCal,but he hasn't struggled on this track.Let me ask you this.B Derek,and Lava both ran here on March 4th.Lava was coasting on a 1:11:1 in his race.On the same track,Brother Derek ran a 1:10:1 on the way to his 1:41:4 .So,that day Derek was 5 lengths ahead of what Lava was doing at 6f.Would Lava been able to catch him that day? Probably,but I don't think what Lava did in the S A Hdcp that day was that much better than what Derek did earlier in the Santa Catalina.It was better,but I think people underestimate what Derek can do at this particular track.They did nothing but rave about the way he worked all Winter at this track.Will Magnum run well? I don't know if he is still sharp.I am just gunna hope Lava and Derek put on a show in the stretch today.I think we would all like to see both horses run their best(well not everybody..a lot of people hate both or 1 of them...especially B.D.)