[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Well,Lava hasn't had much success taking on 126 lbs. No doubt that Lava Man has beaten most of these,but there are a couple things different on Saturday.This is a handicap,and I think people are simply overlooking the fact that these horses are almost all getting huge weight breaks(at the same time that Lava has to carry 2 extra pounds.)In the Pacific Classic,Lava carried the sameweight as most of the rest(124.)Today,they carry 115,117,and 118(while he carries the same 126 that he has failed to win with before.)When Lava beat Magnum in the S. Anita Handicap,Lava carried 120.Now he carries 6 more pounds(126.)Lava gave up 7 pounds to Magnum that day.In this race he will give him 9 pounds.He will give up 11 pounds to Brother Derek.Brother Derek has never lost at this track.He carried 122 during his success at this track.Now,he is asked to only have to carry 115 pounds.Lava is a very good horse,but he will be tested tomorrow by 2 horses that like this track very much.This should be a very good race.I don't know who will win,but it is not the mismatch that people think it is.

Good post, Scuds. Agree completely.

--Dunbar