Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane
Ok so you're using Lost Mountain's 107 beyer as proof of his historic comparison to LAL ? Then I see the pps of a horse who's not even on the list in question. Who by the way looked like a tough customer.
I get that. Some horses are born in the wrong year. But often their measure of talent can be exaggerated because of who they faced just as a horse like
LAL's ability is downgraded because of who he has been beating. There is a median in there somewhere and Beyer numbers aren't the end all in determining how good a horse is. If they were Sinister Minister or Bellamy Road would be household names.
I wouldn't mind seeing Lost Mountain's pps. I bet him in the Derby.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane
Ok so back to the list in question. If Phil ranked LAL last on that list and did so along the lines of what you are saying, using the beyer number for that given race as the determining factor of how a horse would "rank" among others, not so much how a horse would rank historically among those same horses, then I have no argument.
Simply place the number next to each horse and leave it at that. Don't bother explaining who ran behind LAL because the number is the determining factor.
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No, my critical ranking was not based solely on the Beyer numbers assigned. Let's look at this critically- of the 3yo restricted races, the Haskell would rank 4th behind the Derby, Preakness, and Travers for races "I want to win" (given that the Belmont has become somewhat irrelevant in a non-TC year). It's a serious and important race in the landscape of 3yo racing and a race I happen to love. They draw really good/great fields and important horses, benchmark types. I looked at each of the horses and said "do I want them or LaL in a matchup?"
Rachel Alexandra- RA
Big Brown- BB
Any Given Saturday- AGS
Bluegrass Cat- BC
Roman Ruler- tossup
Lion Heart- LH
Peace Rules- PR
War Emblem- WE
Point Given- PG
Dixie Union- DU
Menifee- Menifee
Coronado's Quest- CQ
Touch Gold- TG
Skip Away- SA
Serena's Song- SS
Holy Bull- HB
Kissin Kris- KK
Technology- tossup
Lost Mountain- tossup
Restless Con- LaL
King Glorious- KG
Forty Niner- FN
Bet Twice- BT
So I came up with 3 tossups, 1 yes, and 19 no's. I'd like to know where you disagree with my assessment (if any.) It's an interesting comparison if nothing else.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I would probably rank him a little below average on that list but I certainly wouldn't rank him last.
His performance today surprised me. I thought he was the horse to beat but I thought it was a competitive field. I thought he deserved to be the favorite but I thought he should have been the 5-2 favorite, not the 6-5 favorite. I was totally wrong. He blew them away. He won like a 6-5 shot.
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Agree with this.