Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Our WPS are 33%...which makes 25% a generous estimate. I will look into what they are at smaller tracks. Perhaps you are right but I'm dubious.
However, the second paragraph just shows you aren't thinking this through.
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You are not following what I'm saying.
The MUTUEL pool total, the number I quoted, is the sum of WPS- you are thinking of a percentage of TOTAL handle (which as you stated at NYRA and most other places is about 33% of total handle). WPS wagering % of the MUTUEL pool is not distributed 33% Win, 33% Place, 33% Show. It's much closer to 50% Win, 25% Place, 25% Show (if not a higher bias towards Win in smaller jurisdictions) barring a bridgejumper getting involved.
My point stands that a $40 bet does not impact the pool materially enough to move a +20% ROI to negative.
If I'm not thinking this through enough... explain to me how "sophisticated money" has any bearing on a finalized pool with final prices. If higher quality bettors starting punting PID, yes it likely be tougher to win there. But they aren't, and they won't be. And that's assuming that everybody that bets PID is a complete moron who can barely read a form.