Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
If you have to ask the question, WHY AREN'T YOU DOING IT THEN?!??!?, then you really don't understand the betting side of the game. Are you even familiar, a little, with the pool sizes of the tracks I mention? If I posted selections in the paper every day for those tracks it is a guarantee I would show a + ROI. If I bet as much as $40 on those selections with real money, it would probably turn to a negative ROI, or at the very least shrink considerably.
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Saying I don't understand the betting aspect of the game is pretty LOL funny.
I am very familiar with the pool sizes of PID. Let's do a little exercise here: The last race run had a mutuel pool of $14,219. For argument's sake let's say 50% of that was the win pool ($7,109) and takeout at PID on WPS is 17% ($5,901). The winner went off at 4.4-1, which means he had $1,093 on him to win. Add in your $40 bet ($33 after takeout) to the pool and on the winner and your $10.80 winner drops to $10.60 or $10.40, depending on breakage. That's either -1.8% or -3.6% on a common-priced winner, far from enough to crush your suggested +20% ROI.
FYI, for a $40 bet to depress the odds enough to eradicate a 20% the horse would have to pay over $74. I can guarantee to you anyone betting horses at PID at 36-1 has a permanent bed in the poor house.