Quote:
Originally Posted by Riot
Obama's approval numbers are low now, yes. But look at the Dem vs GOP numbers - the GOP is still at the bottom. The views on the GOP positive for dealing with issues is still lower than the Dems, very low.
For a GOP vs Dem congress this fall, right now the GOP only barely wins by 2% points.
So people are unhappy with the Dems, but the GOP isn't winning any new friends and isn't above them, they are below them. Remember alot of people unhappy with the Dems are progressives that feel this administration is too conservative (healthcare was 'way too conservative for many on the left)
And still the public says that Obama inherited the mess 40% versus "it's his" 27%
So I don't see where "any" GOP candidate could beat Obama at all, right now, today. Too much baggage, too far to the right to appeal to any center, which decides the election. Reagan won on the center, not the base. The people who are voting GOP say they do so "primarily to cut government spending" - yet Bush took us from surplus to massive deficit, started two wars, etc. People know that.
Again: name a GOP candidate, guys. Who could do it?
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that's still a win.....:
Forty-five percent prefer a GOP-controlled Congress after this year’s elections, compared with 43 percent who want a Democratic-controlled Congress.
This is the GOP’s second-straight lead on this generic-ballot question, which hasn’t occurred since 2002.
“The Republican Party has a major advantage in the fall, and this poll just reconfirms that,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this poll with GOP pollster Bill McInturff.
Moreover,
32 percent say their vote this November will be a signal of opposition to President Obama, versus 27 percent who say it will be a signal of support for him. That’s a reversal from January, when 37 percent said their vote would be in support for the president, while 27 percent said it would be in opposition.
then there's this:
The problem is worse in swing areas. Last week's National Public Radio (NPR) poll of the 60 Democratic House seats most at risk this year showed just 37% of voters in these districts agreed Mr. Obama's "economic policies helped avert an even worse crisis and are laying a foundation for our eventual economic recovery"; 57% believed they "have run up a record federal deficit while failing to end the recession or slow the record pace of job losses."
and:
Mr. Obama's failures mean he can't lift his party by campaigning. A Public Policy Poll earlier this month reported that 48% said an Obama endorsement would make them less likely to vote for the candidate receiving it, while only one-third said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by the president.
Republicans jumped into the lead last November in Gallup's party generic ballot match-ups among all voters, and since March the GOP has led or been tied every single week except one. In the Rasmussen Poll's tracking among likely voters, Republicans have been ahead by an average of seven points, 44% to 37%, since March. This reflects a significant political development—independents breaking for the GOP.
Then there is the intensity gap, which is particularly important in midterms. In Gallup, 45% of Republicans are "very enthusiastic" about voting this fall versus 24% of Democrats. This staggering 22-point gap is the largest so far this election year. And in the NPR survey of 60 swing Democratic districts, 62% of Republicans rated their likelihood of voting as 10, the highest. Only 37% of Democrats were similarly excited.