[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

While in the end you guessed correctly, it was for the wrong reason. Beyer doesn't use the standard one turn mile chart for races at Belmont. He has not for the whole meet. I'm pretty sure he didn't last year either but I don't remember 100%, so don't quote me on that. He adds about 8 points to the standard chart.

So, if using the regular one turn speed chart, the difference between Quality Road and Driven by Success should be about 12 points, not 16 or 17. But with the different chart in use for Belmont, the figure is actually about 20 points higher. Do you honestly believe the race figure should be 124? I know that I don't. Given that the Met was run in isolation from other dirt races, I think using the horses in the Met is much more accurate than using the other races on the card when you have to decide between the two.

To further befuddle people, the first race was split from the others as well, but I think this is a bad mistake by Hopkins/Beyer. The pace was very fast and the winner still went wire to wire. They gave the race a 77...poor work on that one in my opinion. It is probably a good approximation of the winner, but it makes the ones behind him look better than they actually ran by 10 or 11 points.

Also, on the "raw chart" I have (excluding the Belmont adjustment), DBS' 1:21.75 = 118 and QR's 1:33.11 = 134, do you disagree with that?