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Originally Posted by randallscott35
Looking over this race it is evident to me you won't get rich but the excitement of a Belmont with a Triple chance seems better than 75% to me...
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Randall, you don't really mean 75%, do you? Fair odds of 1 to 3? You can get 3-1 on Super Saver at TheGreek, as you probably know. That would represent an edge of +900% on fair odds of 1 to 3. (You can also get Super Saver at -115 vs LAL, btw).
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Originally Posted by kgar311
Im having a hard time figuring out the love affair and the world beater status thrust upon Super Saver here. Granted he won the derby, but he also got beat in the Tampa Bay Derby(outgutted), the Arkansas Derby and his first win of the year came on a sloppy nasty track in which I think he took a liking to and it wasn't like he set the track record, they walked in 205. Seems like every other horse was just spinning their wheels, except Ice Box who in my opinion should of won the race. He also won his only stakes victory over the same surface months back(horse for the course). Now we have a track where the surface will be a 180 from what he just ran on and a fast track that he has yet to win on this year. The horse is a gamer and has only been out of the money once in seven starts but the talk of him winning "by daylight" and in a "walkover" like most people on here are saying is nonsense. Nice horse but not a world beater by far and will be exposed in this race.
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Well said, thought I would hardly guarantee that he'll "be exposed". I think Super Saver has maybe a 30% chance to win the race. Fair odds are around 5-2, IMO. He deserves to be the favorite, just not an overwhelming fav.
--Dunbar