Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Consider the following: with THIS jock, Rail Trip can get that 'trip' EVERY time. This is the trip he got when he went 10F --- distance challenged that he is.
Which means that, if ridden correctly, he can basically control any race. More precisely, he can keep a race from collapsing by not moving too soon and forcing the off the pacers to do all their own running. This assumes, of course, that it'll be a reasonably small field. In a large(r) field, it's almost guaranteed that a couple of idiots will move too soon and collapse the race. This, btw, was the trip that RA could've gotten in the BC. 
I certainly don't think that RT can beat Z; especially at 10F. Going shorter, however, and in a small field, with a perfect ride, he'd be a challenge. |
I don't see how he can get that trip if there is other decent speed in the race. Exactly once has he been rated off the pace and farther back than second, and while he ran ok he still lost to Einstein and Richard's Kid. He is not going to get that slow pace while still sitting second in a G1 race.
He has shown in the past to be able to run faster early and still run a good race. My only point is the "great comeback" was nothing more than a workout. He only ran for the last 1/4 or so.