Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It's very simple......you multiply his chances of winning each race ( and also have to figure in whatever realistic chance he has of not running for whatever reason ). 30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 10% ( .1 ) as an injury factor is relatively fair....though 40% for the Belmont may be a little high.
10% is a realistic number.
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Right idea, but you meant "30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 90% ( .9 )" (multiplying by the chance he runs, not the chance he's injured).
Quote:
Originally Posted by robfla
According to Bodog:
Will Super Saver win the 2010 Preakness Stakes
Yes +240
No -300
Will Super Saver Win The 2010 Triple Crown
All three Triple Crown Races must be run for action. Super Saver must win Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for "Yes" to be graded the winner.
Yes +475
No -700
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5Dimes has
Yes TC +650
No TC -1175
So, either the "NO -700" is generous at Bodog or the "YES +650" is generous at 5Dimes; OR the real odds are about +675.
I haven't gone over the Preakness PP's enough to venture an opinion on fair odds for that race or the TC, but I'm guessing it's the -700 for the "NO TC" at BoDog that's generous.
--Dunbar