I put his chances of winning next Saturday at 40%.... and not knowing how the Belmont field will look, figure he's 25-30% in there.... 10-12% overall.
I don't see how the Preakness field is shaping-up to be any more difficult than the Derby field. He's only run three times this year, so he's relatively fresh considering, and I think he's shown he's immune to insane pace scenarios... he can rate close, or a bit farther off.
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