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Old 05-05-2010, 11:43 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
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It's very simple......you multiply his chances of winning each race ( and also have to figure in whatever realistic chance he has of not running for whatever reason ). 30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 10% ( .1 ) as an injury factor is relatively fair....though 40% for the Belmont may be a little high.

10% is a realistic number.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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