Less than 10%. Just guessing at odds but if he's 3-1 and 2-1, that's 25% and 33%, so .25 x .33=8.25%. With 14 potential entries, he won't be too much shorter than that unless some of the other "name" horses are out. If he runs off in the Preakness, I guess he could really come down to even money in a 7 or 8 horse Belmont field.
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Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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