Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35
7. American Lion- Easily the key to the race. Has run the fastest dirt figure in the race and his morning line is 30-1. Harty hits at a staggering 31% at Churchill and it is not like he's doing it in claiming races. I don't think he's a need the lead type mainly b/c the races he seemed rank in are the ones he wore blinkers in. He won't have them on today. His come home time in Illinois was excellent in a strong headwind. Drew the best of the fast horses in the race and has trained well in the slop all week. Risk reward says he is the best bet in the race.
|
The more I look at this race the more I believe you are correct about him being a key factor (Super saver equally so). The favorable trip and pace he got in Ill. bothers me a bit(not to mention a meltdown possibility) but unlike Sidney the risk vs. reward is greater. He was forced to squeeze back in the run to the first turn in the San Felipe and held tight throughout the first turn until he was let go in the backstretch and although he had nothing to offer when Sidney drew away he wasn't disgraced.
The way the track is playing will be the key factor for all the speed oriented horses and if Line of David is scratched he moves up.