Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Bigshots' race, per the non Trakus charts, is not nearly against the grain enough to warrant a look; certainly not at 5:2. Moreover, he's never run a race in his history where he's run against the grain (or done anything of note in terms of his setups). This is key: I want horses that run well against the setup not those that plug along when they don't get one and run only when things go their way. A chart history, while flawed (as all data presently is) goes a long way towards pointing them out. (Another way would be to watch all their races and keep copious notes.  )
And, it's become evident to me that even the strongest bias is not immune to pace/setup. Even if there were a speed bias on 4/08, race 6 was not run as such. |
We agree on this. While the pace was moderately fast for the level, it still shouldn't have fallen apart like it did.
However, I don't know how you can say this horse wouldn't be identified on a computer-based system as a stickout; he's exactly what you're trying to find, closing from well back on a day where very little passing occurred. I can understand not wanting to get involved at 5/2 but then you are right back to square one- needing extensive human analysis to finalize your wagering decisions. There is no substitute for hard work in this game- be it making quality speed figures, watching races, creating customized charts, or building a database of troubled trips. It is a lot closer to poker than blackjack in that artificial intelligence can only do part of the work instead of all of it.