[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Since I brought it up....

Basically, making money by evaluating horses using speed figures has obviously become very difficult due to the proliferation of viable numbers. So, while obviously part of the " secret " lies in understanding how a number was earned, either positively or negatively, you have to have a broader understanding of the game these days in order to have any real success. Now, while clearly effective trip handicapping is a major help, and this is all part of understanding how numbers are earned, you also need as broad an understanding of the relative talents of the horses as possible and one way to do this is through the umbrella of " class " handicapping or evaluating. I would say this is more useful in turf racing ( as opposed to dirt....I don't do much synthetic handicapping so I can't really have an opinion on this ) because speed figures are final time based and thus likely to be more applicable for dirt racing. Simply put, an accurate understanding of the relative talents of the different fields the competitors in a given race have faced will help you evaluate the relative chances of today's entrants. I suppose this would, in some way, be considered " class " handicapping.

It came up today in a discussion of the 8th at Aqueduct, where the first two finishers had basically been facing more hardened foes than, specifically, the 2 horse, who had just broken his maiden in his second start versus $35K maiden claimers at Gulfstream. However, to be fair, using speed figures also showed those two horses to be superior....though not significantly.

Overall I would say it is all part of having as well rounded a game as possible. The more you know, or understand, and use effectively, the better your results.

Class seems to be much more important on synthetic than real dirt... which makes sense given the correlation to turf performance.